Alwaght- The return of tensions to the Strait of Hormuz amid US aggression against Iran is no longer just a threat to the world oil markets, and it is gradually unleashing a comprehensive crisis in the supply chain, sea trade, and the good security of the Persian Gulf Arab states. If oil price spikes used to be the top concern in the past, experts now warn of disruptions to essential goods, food supplies, agricultural inputs, and industrial raw materials, a threat that could trigger a fresh wave of inflation and even shortages across the region’s import-dependent economies.
Food security in the Persian Gulf countries, especially with the disruption of the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, poses a strategic and viral challenge, since these monarchies are heavily dependant on imports to meet their needs.
Meanwhile, the economies of Persian Gulf states have shown various grades of capability to absorb the war fallout.
Hormuz, bottleneck of Arab countries' imports
Though the (P) GCC states are major energy exporters, they import the lion's share of their consumer goods. Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE bring in 80 to 90 percent of their food, much of it via the Strait of Hormuz. The UN's FAO warns that a prolonged closure or disruption there would threaten the Gulf's single most vital food-supply route.
At the same time, UNCTAD has made clear that the strait isn't just an energy chokepoint. Disruption would fracture global supply chains, send shipping costs soaring, and delay deliveries across the board.
Unprecedented drop of transit
The latest figures published by the Reuters show that the ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to its lowest record in May. In some days, only three container ships crossed the waterway and for the second day no VLCC or LNG transitted. Many of the ships have stopped in the Sea of Oman or rerouted.
This drop in traffic is not just about oil exports. Grain ships, food carriers, consumer goods, industrial equipment, and commercial containers are all facing lengthy delays, surging insurance premiums, and forced route changes.
Increased price of transportation: Start of second wave of inflation
One of the first fallout effects of insecurity in the strait is a spike in maritime freight costs. Insurers have jacked up war-risk premiums for transiting vessels, and many shipping lines now only enter the Persian Gulf if they can charge steep surcharges.
The IMF, meanwhile, warns that beyond higher energy prices, disruption to chemical fertilizer shipments, roughly one-third of global trade in fertilizers passes through Hormuz, will directly hit crop yields and push food prices even higher.
FAO warning about "systematic agri-food shock"
Perhaps the most important warning was issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The organization in mid-May announced that protracted crisis in the Strait of Hormuz can cause a "systematic agri-food shock" within six to twelve months, a crisis that will increase food prices worldwide.
According to the FAO, this is not simply about shutting a shipping lane; it is about the simultaneous disruption of grain, cooking oils, animal feed, chemical fertilizers, and agricultural inputs moving through the strait. The ripple effects would not hit consumer markets for months, but when they do, they will be severe.
Now, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed again, Persian Gulf states had barely a two-month window to stockpile food supplies. Even with those reserves in place, supply constraints will still squeeze consumers, and markets are expected to hold out for only a few weeks at most before the pressure becomes unbearable.
Arab states wealthy but dependent
Though Arab countries are financially capable of buying goods and services, the main issue in the current crisis is access to goods not the money to buy them.
Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain import roughly all of their food, rice, dairy, and many of their essential goods from abroad. Even the UAE that has turned into a regional logistical and transportation hub imports a major parts of consumer goods using ports. So, any disruption in the maritime transportation directly impacts the stores, shelves, and consumer prices.
As the conflict extends to infrastructure, with ports and airports now potential targets, situation becomes far more dire than before. Even if Iran were to allow food-carrying ships through, a quick return to pre-war conditions would remain out of the question. The damage to logistics networks, insurance markets, and shipping routes has already set in motion a chain reaction that would not be reversed overnight.
Doubled pressure on Persian Gulf Arab economies
Contrary to popular belief, higher oil prices don't automatically translate into windfalls for Arab economies. A new Reuters survey of economists shows that because exports and trade are snarled, most Cooperation Council economies will take a bigger hit this year than earlier forecasts suggested.
According to these estimates, Qatar and Kuwait will each see their economies shrink by around 8.1 percent, Bahrain by 5.1 percent, and the UAE by about half a percent. Only Saudi Arabia and Oman are in better shape, thanks to alternative export routes that bypass the Strait.
The IMF projects that Oman will still manage 3.5 percent growth in 2026, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE both at 3.1 percent. Kuwait, however, is expected to contract by 0.6 percent and Bahrain by 0.5 percent.
Are alternative routes sufficient?
In recent months, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq have launched major efforts to expand their pipelines and ports outside the Strait of Hormuz.
However, even if these projects are inaugurated, still 7-9 oil barrels a day and a considerable part of regional trade depend on the Strait of Hormuz.
Additionally, security threats in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait prevent alternative routes to fast replace the Strait of Hormuz.
Taken together, the concurrent warnings from the FAO, the IMF, and UNCTAD make one thing clear: the Hormuz crisis has entered a new phase, one whose consequences now extends far beyond energy markets, intertwining with food security, global shipping, international trade, and the region's economic stability.
In such conditions, even the Persian Gulf's wealthiest governments may find themselves facing a challenge that petrodollars alone cannot fix. Because in a supply-chain crisis, the core issue is no longer price; it is access: securing the goods themselves and keeping trade flowing.
