Alwaght- Nearly twelve years have gone since the Saudi-led Arab-Western coalition imposed a brutal, all-encompassing siege on Yemen, sealing its ports and airports to all essential goods. But now things have changed. Ansarullah resistance movement, which for years bore the brunt of a land, sea, and air blockade, announced last Monday that they have placed Riyadh under their own naval siege. According to international observers, this development has pushed global energy markets to the brink of one of the most volatile crises in a decade.
A fresh chain of clashes began on July 13, when forces loyal to Aden-based puppet government struck Sana'a International Airport, an attack that, according to a Saudi-affiliated military spokesman, was aimed at preventing an Iranian plane from landing.
The arrival of that Iranian flight became a symbolic moment, signaling the erosion of Saudi Arabia's military and political dominance over Yemen and the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. The very next day, senior Ansarullah commanders openly floated the prospect of besieging Saudi Arabia. Then, in a show of force, Sana'a hit Abha International Airport in southern Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles and drones.
But the real turning point came on Monday, July 20, when Yemen's military spokesman, General Yahya Saree, formally announced a naval embargo against the "criminal Saudi enemy", a reciprocal measure, he said, tit for tat. The statement noted that Saudi leaders had imposed nearly twelve years of oppressive siege on Yemen, completely sealing its ports and airports by land, sea, and air.
The Yemenis, citing this very history, have asserted their right to answer siege with siege, and have threatened any Saudi retaliatory move with a "comprehensive and decisive" response.
What sets this threat apart from similar ones in the past is its timing and its place in the broader calculus of the ongoing regional conflict between Iran and the US.
Since February 28, when the US and the Israeli regime launched their illegitimate war against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed. Riyadh has been forced to reroute the bulk of its oil exports through an alternative: the East-West Pipeline, known as Petroline, to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Exports from Yanbu, which before the Iran war stood at about 973,000 barrels per day, have now surged past four million barrels daily, accounting for more than 70 percent of Saudi crude exports. But the shipping route for those cargoes to Asian markets cuts straight through the Bab-el-Mandeb, the very chokepoint now squarely in Yemeni crosshairs.
According to data from the maritime shipping analytics firm Kepler, total oil and refined products passing through this strait reached 7.4 million barrels per day in June, equivalent to nearly seven percent of global oil supply.
Analysts warn that a complete closure of this strait, on top of Hormuz, could disrupt more than 25 percent of the world's oil and gas supply. Unlike Hormuz, where Saudi Arabia had Petroline as a backup infrastructure since the 1980s, there is no ready-made alternative for Bab el-Mandeb. The only remaining option is a lengthy detour via the Suez Canal and the Cape of Good Hope, a reroute that would add weeks to shipping times and enormous costs to the final price of oil.
Signs that this threat is materializing are gradually emerging. At least seven ships bound for Saudi ports have reversed course or turned back in recent days. Two tankers, the Rhodus and the Xin Long Yang, carrying a combined 2.8 million barrels of oil from Yanbu, abruptly pivoted northward mid-journey toward Bab-el-Mandeb.
On Thursday, Ansarullah struck two Saudi tankers, the Ansleya and the Layla, and fired missiles at the Yanbu export terminal, the exit point of the Petroline. The attack pushed Brent crude past the $100-per-barrel mark for the first time in months.
None of this can be grasped without looking at the war between Iran and the US playing out in the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia knows full well that any serious move against Yemen could put it in a prohibitively costly position, one that, given the steep drop in its oil revenues over recent months, could rapidly erode its economic and social resilience.
Riyadh has also come to realize that its allies are not going to deliver much. The US itself has spent months trying to pry open the Strait of Hormuz, with little to show for it. The Persian Gulf monarchies are effectively defenseless against Iranian missile strikes. And Pakistan, which under its defense pact with Saudi Arabia is supposed to cooperate against Yemen, has instead spent months playing mediator, trying to steer the region away from all-out war, so far without notable success. Saudi Arabia, in short, finds itself in a strategic vice, one that will likely force it to tread far more cautiously in any response to Yemen.
Finally, while the Saudi Foreign Ministry has declared it will take all necessary measures to protect its ships, the hard truth is this: no naval force to date has managed to neutralize the Ansarullah's shore-based anti-ship missiles positioned along Yemen's coastline.
So, Riyadh which for years has leveraged the blockade against Yemen is now finding itself caught in front of blockade of two vital energy chokepoints, a situation seen by analysts as bearing witness to shifting balance of power in West Asia.
