Alwaght- We are now at a critical juncture in the region’s course of developments, and the situation, particularly in Lebanon and the occupied territories, has grown more volatile than ever. The real epicenter of concern, however, is Israeli regime, where the stakes have rarely been higher. This tension stems from three key factors: first, the regime's string of setbacks against Iran; second, growing Israeli anxiety over how the Axis of Resistance might retaliate; and third, the looming parliamentary elections, that is now just 40 to 50 days away.
Netanyahu in political predicament
Current circumstances find Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of the Israeli regime, in an unfavorable position in the polls. This poor standing stems, on one hand, from his failures against Iran, and on the other, from his inability to ensure security in the occupied territories. Alongside these issues, his manner of engagement and performance vis-à-vis Trump has also added to his political difficulties.
Netanyahu has even been accused of deception toward Trump regarding the Gaza ceasefire, and this combination of developments has seriously challenged his position within the occupied territories.
Escape forward in Lebanon
Given Netanyahu’s improper situation at home and abroad, he is moving to costly measures. Over the past few weeks, we have seen him escalating the battle in Lebanon several times, targeting the civilians in the south of the country, the bastion of Hezbollah, while it claims it targets the positions of the powerful resistance movement.
Just in the past two days, a hospital and various civilian areas of Nabatieh were heavily bombed by the Israeli occupation. The actions are read as part of his effort to intensify security situation in the region and boost his position at home as a hawkish and audacious PM. However, these actions have so far been far from improving his image among the public inside the occupied territories.
Ali al-Taher, new Tel Aviv game
Over the past few months, the Zionists have repeatedly raised the issue of occupying the Ali al-Taher heights. These heights are located in southern Lebanon and hold military significance due to their geographical position and vantage over surrounding areas.
The Israeli claim that there are tunnels in the Ali al-Taher heights, and their goal is to occupy the area and destroy these tunnels. However, no independent images or evidence of these alleged tunnels have been published so far.
Naturally, the possibility of Hezbollah military fortifications existing in this area cannot be completely ruled out, but the way the Zionist officials have framed the issue, along with the extensive propaganda surrounding the importance of occupying the Ali al-Taher heights, also raises the possibility that Netanyahu's cabinet is exploiting this matter for propaganda purposes to project a military achievement.
Hezbollah’s calculated silence
Hezbollah, under these circumstances, has preferred not to show a hasty reaction to the regime's claims regarding the occupation of the heights. This calculated silence could allow the resistance to clarify the dimensions of the Israeli claims at the appropriate time.
To this day, most of Hezbollah's statements and positions have focused on the crimes and attacks of the Israeli regime, and the movement has not directly entered into the debate over the claim of occupying the Ali al-Taher heights. From this perspective, Hezbollah's silence can be seen as part of its media and operational management of the situation.
Beirut's distrust in Tel Aviv
The Lebanese government also appears to have become more pessimistic than before regarding the Israeli regime's behavior. In recent days, although 5 Lebanese prisoners were released by the Israeli regime, dozens of other locations in Lebanon were simultaneously targeted by attacks. This situation has reinforced the perception in Beirut that the path of negotiations alone is not capable of restraining Tel Aviv's actions.
This experience serves for Lebanon as a reminder of the history of negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israeli regime in agreements such as Oslo, agreements which critics believe were, on multiple occasions, undermined or violated by the unilateral actions of Tel Aviv after they were concluded.
Israel's power projection limit
Despite noisy propaganda of the Israeli regime, field realities show that Tel Aviv faces limits putting determining pressures on Hezbollah. The Lebanese society has shown over time that in is ready to pay price of resistance to occupation and foreign invasion and necessarily does not tend to withdraw support to Hezbollah and its demands in return for stop of attacks.
So, the military operations in Lebanon necessarily do not mean making political and strategic gains and there is a serious distinction between the capability to carry out attacks and the capability to change the political and security equations.
Fronts are interconnected
Future developments in the region cannot be examined separately on each front. What happens in Iran can affect the equations in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq, and developments on each of these fronts can also impact the others.
From the perspective of the Axis of Resistance, the US and the Israeli regime are not viewed as two separate players in regional equations, and for this reason, the Axis of Resistance also follows regional developments as an interconnected whole.
Each front an equation
Now each conflict scene has its own specific position and equations. In Yemen, the developments are shaping new equations and in Lebanon the resistance of Hezbollah is influencing part of the future regional fate.
Meanwhile, the Israeli regime is pushing with the state of war and crisis, while at home signs of confusion and pressure are emerging, including reverse migration, foreign capital flight, and reduced foreign tourist arrivals. All these factors are creating a difficult situation inside this regime.
Play with time
For this reason, the Tel Aviv is attempting to prolong the war, perhaps hoping that conditions might shift in its favor in the future. However, the continuation of the war is also costly for the US and the Israeli regime, and one cannot speak of an easy return to a favorable situation for them.
This does not mean that everything is about to suddenly collapse; rather, it refers to a gradual and attritional process that could lead to the increasing weakening of the opposing side, and its dimensions may even remain partly hidden from public opinion.
Within this framework, reports of the questioning of a number of American military personnel, as well as an increase in arrests and security crackdowns inside the Israeli regime, could be indicative of the mounting pressures that the opposing side is facing.
Time working in favor of Axis of Resistance and Hezbollah
The element of time is working in the interest of the Axis of Resistance and the future developments will expose this truth. So, we should not regard some passing developments like attacks on some Iranian oil tankers in the Persian Gulf or seizure of a hilltop alone as a factor determining the final war result.
These developments may be tactically important, but it does not mean a root shift in the war dynamics and fleeting and superficial successes should not make the base for judging the final result.
Cohesion of Axis of Resistance
Finally, what matters more is the resilience of the people and the cohesion of the Axis of Resistance. The Resistance factions in Iraq, Yemen, Iran, and Lebanon, as well as aligned forces in Syria, are closely monitoring the developments, and each, in accordance with its own capacities and position, influences the overall trajectory of events.
This interconnectedness and coordination among the various fronts can play a significant role in shaping the future equations of the region, especially in a situation where the war has moved beyond a limited confrontation between two sides and has transformed into a network of intertwined fronts.
