Alwaght- West Asia affairs expert Sayyed Hadi Afghahi in an interview with Alwaght pointed to the American military withdrawal from Iraq, saying that this is not an end to the American presence in Iraq and that Washington will seek to maintain influence in this country through political, economic, security, and cultural paths.
2003 invasion and start of Iraq destruction
Referring to the American invasion of Iraq in 2003 that led to collapse of Saddam Hussein, Mr Afghahi said that George W. Bush's war on Iraq was part of a push to gain control over Iraq and to change the regional geography to pave the way for long-term presence and also in favor of the Israeli ambition to realize "Greater Israel" dream.
He went on that in 2003 war, which was waged without UN Security Council's authorization, Iraq sustained serious and fundamental damage in terms of infrastructure, political system, security institutions, military institutions, and public service facilities. These damages remain unrepaired to date and there are no prospects to reconstruct Iraq's main capabilities.
2011 exit: US defeat against resistance
The political expert, pointing to the US military presence in Iraq from 2003 to 2011, said: "As a result of the blows dealt by the Islamic resistance in Iraq with the help of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Obama was forced to withdraw American troops, and even as the occupiers were pulling out of Iraq, the Americans were afraid of being attacked by resistance forces.
Afghahi described the 2011 withdrawal as a serious defeat for the US, saying that when the Americans entered Iraq and Baghdad fell in 2003, Donald Rumsfeld, the US defense secretary at the time, was asked how long they would stay in Iraq. He arrogantly replied that they'd be there for 30 years for now, and would figure out later how to define their strategic objectives. But in the end, in 2011, the Democratic Obama was forced to leave Iraq.
Return to Iraq under ISIS excuse
Asked about return to Iraq of the US forces, Mr Afghahi maintained that the Americans returned to Iraq under the excuse of fighting ISIS terrorist organization. After this return, the religious authority in Iraq through a fatwa of jihad paved the way for formation of Public Mobilization Forces (PMF), or Hashd al-Shabi in Arabic. The force obliterated ISIS terrorists thanks to this fatwa, serious assistance of Iran and under command of General Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
The US, according to Mr Afghahi, remained in Iraq under the ruse of fighting ISIS. It continued this presence seriously and in a targeted way. The Americans did not rely just on military capabilities, though their military presence was enormous.
Withdrawal is not an end to US presence
He pointed to the current process of the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq and stated that the issue of the withdrawal of American forces is being realized according to the promise of the current and former prime ministers of Iraq, but a thousand questions still remain as to how the US will ultimately pursue its interests in Iraq.
He added that in his view, the US will not let go of Iraq and will continue to interfere in Iraq in other ways. Perhaps partition of Iraq is one of options after announcing its withdrawal from Iraq; meaning that a Kurdistan region would be formed for the Kurds, a central region for the Sunnis, and a southern region for the Shias.
Worries about Iraq partition
Mr Afghahi went on to say that Iraq is being partitioned under the radar, noting that Kurdistan Region is a given, and a Sunni middle region is also being pursued. If two regions take shape, a Shiite region will inevitably follow, though Shiite leaders and the Shiite Coordination Framework oppose the breakup of Iraq.
He stressed Iraq's geopolitical and economic weight, saying that Iraq is an extraordinarily wealthy country, rich in oil, gas and vital minerals. On top of that, it occupies a strategic geographic position, and its role alongside Iran in countering normalization with the Israeli regime and confronting American domination in the region is enormously significant.
Concerns about al-Zaydi’s leaning to the US
Commenting on performance of the Iraqi government, Mr Afghahi held that we have to watch the developments closely to see where Prime Minister Ali al-Zaydi's policies will lead. There are signs al-Zaydi has pro-American tendencies and Trump is backing him.
Referring to effective compliance of Iraqi government with the US embargo on Iranian aviation industry, he said that Iraqi people have stood against some of the government's actions and condemned them. Now it remains to see where reopening of Najaf Airport to Iranian flights and some border crossings with Iran will go.
A cosmetic withdrawal
He dismissed the US military exit from Iraq as "cosmetic and for show," saying: "The Americans are set to stay on as trainers of Iraqi forces, and al-Zaydi has apparently signed off on that." According to the political expert, a continued American training presence in Iraq amounts to a threat to the country's standing.
Iraqi oil, a pressure lever at American hand
In another part of his remarks, the expert pointed to Iraq's financial dependence on oil revenues, saying that Iraq remains under American domination. On the pretext of resolutions issued by the Security Council during Saddam's era, Iraq has been under Chapter VII of the Security Council since Saddam's invasion of Kuwait, and Iraq's oil revenues are deposited with the US Federal Reserve after sale.
He called this mechanism one of Washington's key leverage points over the Baghdad government, adding that this is one of the deadliest resolutions, holding the livelihood of the Iraqi people hostage, and the US uses this leverage against the Iraqi people and government. If the Iraqi government makes the slightest anti-American move, the US threatens to block the deposit of oil revenues, and that has already happened several times.
More than 90 percent of Iraq's economy and government revenue, said Mr Afghahi, depends on oil, and this hands the US a hugely important lever.
American influence from airspace to the infrastructures
He also spoke of American influence across Iraq's institutions, saying: "American influence still runs through many of the Baghdad government's decision-making and policymaking centers. Iraq's airspace remains under US control, and any move to upgrade the equipment and weaponry of Iraqi forces runs into stiff American opposition.
Turning to the reconstruction of Iraq's infrastructure, the political expert said that on rebuilding Iraq's infrastructure, electricity and energy, the Americans still insist these projects be carried out with American companies, and this is something we will have to see how the Iraqi people can push back against, so they can break free of American domination.
Iraqi resistance against American influence
As the resistance of Iraqis pushed the Americans to decrease their military presence in Iraq, said Afghahi, they will raise the American costs this time too, though Washington will work to get a foothold in other parts of Iraq sovereignty.
He held that one of the American aims is to put pressure on resistance groups, adding that the Iraqi resistance groups have maintained their weapons and they insist that the US dominance over Iraq must be totally cleansed.
Referring to PMF stances, Mr Afghahi maintained that Hashd al-Shabi stressed that as long as full US exit is not ralized and the American do not stop plundering Iraq's resources, resistance will continue.
Summing up his assessment of the American troop drawdown, he said the US exit from Iraq is the beginning of an end, but it does not mean the end of US's presence in Iraq. Armed, political and cultural popular resistance in Iraq will continue, aimed at severing American reach in the country.
The US pressing to cut off Tehran-Baghdad ties
The political expert also said that the US is seeking to sever the ties between Iran and Iraq, though it will not achieve its goal. But we Iranians, too, must be more vigilant than in the past and keep a close watch on American moves in Iraq.
Referring to the Iraqi government's policy toward Iran, Afghahi said that al-Zaydi’s behavior has also raised serious concerns, and the Iraqi prime minister's conduct, and his sheer obedience to American orders, should push us Iranians to pursue a different strategy in Iraq.
Warning about inter-Shiite fighting
Iran does not want to lose Iraq and does not want to see a civil war between Shiites and Sunnis or inside sects. So, Iran should take steps regarding Iraq vigilantly and realistically and cautiously so that Iraqi people take no damage and Shiite power is preserved.
Pointing to the efforts by the Americans to sow sedition and clashes between Shiites in Iraq, Mr Afghahi said that the US has gone to great lengths to stir fighting among Shiites, but it has so far failed. Vigilance of Shiites groups and Iran's vantage and awareness of Shiite factions has frustrated the American plot for a Iraq civil war.
Iran needs a strategic plan regarding Iraq
He stressed the need to draw up a long-term plan for Iran's policy in Iraq, adding that Tehran needs a strategic blueprint for Iraq and to advance step by step. Iran still does not have a codified, long-term plan for Iraq, not because it is being passive on Iraq, but because it lacks a complete plan for it.
Britain, the US partner in Iraq
Afghahi also pointed to Britain's role in Iraq's developments, saying that the question of American presence in Iraq is not US's alone and Britain is its right hand and chief partner in Iraq. British influence and colonialism in Iraq is an old colonialism, and the Iraqi people rose up against it repeatedly, especially in the 1920 revolution.
Britain has pursued a great deal through cultural influence in Iraq, and its embassy in Baghdad is also working to change the identity of the Iraqi people, according to Afghahi.
UAE and Qatar in the US calculus
The political expert also cited Arab countries as part of the US influence equation in Iraq, adding that presence of some Persian Gulf monarchies in Iraq completely aligns with the American and British plans. On top of these countries are the UAE, and to some extent Qatar, that are pursuing American plans in Iraq.
Trump-al-Zaydi meeting: From Soleimani assassination to Iraq oil
Afghahi also weighed in on the Iraqi PM's dealings with Washington, saying that the US is counting on al-Zaydi's performance. In al-Zaydi’s first meeting with Trump at the White House, several telling moves were made against Iraq, including Trump's comments on the assassination of General Soleimani of Iran.
Trump threw the assassination in al-Zaydi's face, and instead of condemning it, Al-Zaydi said he would not revisit the past and had no interest in such matters. That amounts to sheer submission to Trump, said Afghahi.
Afqahi added that then came Trump's remark that Iraq's oil belongs to the US and al-Zaydi just smiled. That is deeply painful.
He also cited the closure of borders and airports to Iran and the Iraqi government's stance against the PMF, saying that the ruling Shiite Coordination Framework must answer for this dangerous choice. Iraqi political officials need to find a way to secure the country's oil and foreign-currency revenue, strike trade and financial deals with non-Americans, and expand Iraq's ties with China, Russia and India so that Iraq can break free of American domination.
Iraq, Iran's strategic depth
Concluding the interview, Mr Afghahi held that Iraq has major capacities to expand its regional ties, adding that today's Iraq has good potential and real assets, and Iraqi leaders must realize that the Americans will never allow the country's ethnic groups to ally and unite.
Shiites, with the influence of the seminary, the religious authority and Iran's resistance, are an asset for Iraq and for cementing Tehran-Baghdad ties. The martyred Leader Sayyed Ali Khamenei also stressed Iraq's security time and again, saying that Iraq is Iran's strategic depth and Iran is Iraq's strategic depth.
