Alwaght- Since 2017 that the Qatari-mediated US-Taliban talks grew more serious, "Moscow Format" talks started and so far eight rounds of them were held.
One of the important agendas driving these talks in Russia was that Moscow wanted to make sure that the Afghanistan government at the time does not get too much close to the US. In other words, the Kremlin tried to, through these negotiations, maintain its role and involvement in Afghanistan dynamics.
Before Doha agreement was signed on February 29, 2020, two or three meetings of Moscow Format were held and after Taliban took over the rule in Kabul in August 2021, they were held almost once a year.
Top agenda of Moscow Format
If we want to note the nature and reasons behind rise to existence of Moscow Format, we should raise several essential issues. First, the push to create a regional consensus on Afghanistan, in a sense that regional states reach a common thought on Afghanistan developments.
Second aim was to promote Afghanistan national reconciliation and to prepare the ground for comprehensive and inclusive inter-Afghan dialogue. In this framework, the parties underscored the need for the Taliban to form an inclusive government and this emphsis is still pursued during talks of the format.
Third aim was to discuss grounds for cooperation between regional states with Kabul on political, economic, cultural, and other areas.
In the talks before the collapse of the US-backed government of President Ashraf Ghani, various political factions from the Taliban to the Jamiat-i Islami Afghanistan and Islamic Unity Party, as well as others including representatives of Ghani's government, attended these meetings.
After rise to power of the Taliban again, the composition of the participants changed and in some recent meetings, Taliban opposition groups attended. However, concerning the eighth meeting which was held recently, no specific news were reported about the opposition groups.
Actors present at the meeting
Another key issue is who showed up. The main players at these meetings have included Amir Khan Muttaqi, Taliban’s acting foreign minister, along with other officials from the group. Pakistan sent Mohammad Sadiq, its special representative for Afghanistan.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, chaired the session. Iran dispatched Mohammad Reza Bahrami, director-general for South Asia at the foreign ministry. Representatives from India, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan also attended. Turkmenistan typically keeps a low profile at these meetings, a posture attributed to its neutrality. Among other countries, Belarus attended as an observer.
Preventing Kabul-Islamabad escalation
The top agenda was border tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Russia, Iran and China are fully aware that a significant share of those tensions may be driven by American policies and actions.
For now, Washington is barely reacting on Afghanistan, apparently keeping largely quiet. Only at the United Nations did an American official state that Washington does not recognize Taliban rule and will neither reopen its embassy nor invest in Afghanistan until the rights of women and minorities are respected.
That stance sits awkwardly alongside Amir Khan Muttaqi’s own outreach. In a meeting with Zalmay Khalilzad, he raised the issue, and in media interviews, including with The New York Times, he said the Taliban opposes the occupation of Afghanistan but welcomes American presence and investment in Afghan economic projects.
The Russians are deeply worried that Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions could escalate and eventually drag Central Asian states in. With border regions like Chitral, Nuristan and Badakhshan in play, as Badakhshan shares a border with Tajikistan, the fear is that instability could spill from the Afghan-Pakistani frontier into neighboring areas.
There are mutual accusations, too. The Taliban and Pakistan each accuse the other of backing terrorist movements. Pakistan says Taliban-linked factions of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan operate inside Afghanistan and the Taliban, for its part, accuses Pakistan of supporting ISIS terrorist organization, which once emerged in Syria and Iraq in 2014 and after its defeat in 2017, it sought other safe havens like Afghanistan.
Those reciprocal charges could ultimately have consequences beyond the two countries’ borders, and the biggest worry is that instability spreads to Iran’s eastern frontier and to Central Asia.
The meeting ended without a final statement because of disagreements between Kabul and Islamabad. Even so, Iran’s representative said Tehran is ready to play a mediating role in Afghanistan-Pakistan tensions if needed.
Fighting terrorism
Another agenda of the meeting was fight against terrorism and drugs and arms smuggling, and in a broader sense the regional security. For the Russians, a key concern in Central Asia, and especially regarding Afghanistan, is security. One of the main issues driving Russian focus on Afghanistan developments is the security worries and a fear of spread of insecurity from Afghanistan to Central Asian states.
The Russians know the Pashtuns and the Taliban have the capacity to manage insecurity in other ways. That worries Moscow, and to win them over, it recognized the Taliban, though it still attaches its own conditions.
On the positions of the two main actors, namely the Taliban and Pakistan, we must say that the Taliban have consistently claimed that most of the recent border unrest, particularly the incidents in Kamdish in Nuristan province and, over the past month, in Badakhshan, the town of Zebak and other areas, was carried out with Pakistani backing.
In Pakistan, a meeting was held with Taliban opponents, chaired by Tahir Zahir, information and culture minister under the republican government, and Amanullah Paiman, a former Afghan representative, with other anti-Taliban figures taking part. The Taliban, in effect, accuse Pakistan of meddling in Afghanistan’s internal affairs.
So, there is the question of support for ISIS-Khorasan, precisely the charge Pakistan levels against the Afghan Taliban, saying they use the Pakistani Taliban as a strategic tool.
At the Moscow meeting, Pakistan’s representative accused the Taliban of playing a role in recent unrest in his country, including the terrorist attack in Kohat in August and the killing of Pakistani soldiers. Claims were even raised about Taliban ties to the Baloch Liberation Army and cooperation with India.
Given these mutual accusations, Russia is trying to build a common understanding between the sides and manage their tensions. Islamabad, however, tried to make its narrative dominant in the border dispute, using the Moscow meeting instrumentally both to condemn the Taliban and to get that condemnation into the final statement.
But Russia did not quite accept Pakistan’s approach, and at the same time does not consider the Afghan Taliban free of all charges. It also opposes any return of Western forces to Afghanistan. Lavrov recently said the Kremlin is worried about the return of the US and NATO and about the Brogram military base which is eyed by the Americans for long-term use. The Russians have stressed they oppose the strengthening of military infrastructure or the establishment of bases by Western forces in Afghanistan, adding they are ready to mediate between the parties.
Unfortunately, the Taliban apply a dual-faced approach, especially towards Pakistan. On the other hand, Islamabad is not following a policy fully aligned with Moscow.
Iran, for its part, views escalated border tensions as detrimental to regional security and emphasizes collective security and peaceful coexistence. Tehran also commented on its water share from Hirmand River and underscored Kabul's obligations, saying that it wants effective implementation of agreement and ensuring its water share.
What has driven Moscow meeting disputes?
Why the meeting ran into disagreement and produced no deal comes down to several issues. One of the core disputes is the Durand Line and the question of Pashtunistan. Both sides, Afghanistan and Pakistan, use the Pashtun issue on either side of the border as a lever.
Afghanistan fundamentally does not recognize the Durand Line and has laid claim to it, and the Pashtunistan question has been raised repeatedly. Pakistan, naturally, rejects that. On the other side, Pakistan spent years cultivating and backing the Taliban, and now worries the Taliban could turn against it.
Looking at the framework of these meetings, the Moscow Format is designed to forge a regional consensus and a shared understanding on Afghanistan, one that keeps alignments from tilting against Russia or even the China-Russia-Iran axis, and from drifting instead toward the US and the Western camp.
