Alwaght- As the Israeli election results are finalized, the race for the seat of the prime minister has entered a new level and all parties have introduced their positions and choices to President Isaac Herzog for him to pick a new PM.
As it was expected, Arab parties have turned into effective players in the Israeli cabinet formation process. So, with their initial standing, they have taken an important step in showing their political weight and role in the power equations.
In this regard, the Joint List, a coalition of Arab-majority parties in the occupied territories that secured 11 seats in the recent elections, announced Thursday that it has recommended Gadi Eisenkot, Benjamin Netanyahu's rival, as the next prime minister to Isaac Herzog. The Arab Ra'am party, which holds 8 seats in the Knesset, likewise declared its support for Eisenkot.
These Arab coalitions argue that such a move could bolster the chances of ousting the current government and diminish the likelihood of a coalition forming that would keep Netanyahu in power.
Yousef Jabareen, a leader of the Joint List, said his party is not seeking cabinet posts but is prepared to back an Eisenkot-led government from the outside. Ahmad Tibi, another Joint List member, underscored the imperative of regime change: "We want to do things we haven't done in the past to push aside this criminal government."
Meanwhile, Zionist parties have also put forward Eisenkot for the premiership. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, head of the Yamina party, announced that his party will recommend Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yesh Atid party, to Herzog as its candidate for forming a government. Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party and Yair Golan's Democrats have also thrown their support behind Eisenkot.
With Arab backing, 67 elected members of Israel's incoming parliament now support Eisenkot, while Netanyahu commands the support of only 46, though this does not mean these parties will join an Eisenkot coalition.
As party decisions on supporting a candidate crystallize, Herzog announced that on Sunday, November 8,he will name his chosen candidate to form a government. Herzog nonetheless stressed that despite Eisenkot's numerical advantage in consultations, it remains unclear which candidate is better positioned to assemble a stable coalition. He said he will hold separate talks with several party leaders before making a final decision, to explore the possibility of bridging gaps and forming a stable government.
Though Eisenkot can win Arab parties' support to form a coalition government, such a move can cost him loss of support of some allies like Lieberman, as the Zionist parties are heavily against Eisenkot cooperating with the Arab List. Meanwhile, so far, Yair Golan has been the only figure to call for breaking this taboo. He said that to oust the right-wing from power they should put aside the political disputes and entertain coalition with the Arab parties.
Legal opportunity for cabinet formation
Under Israeli law, the president consults with the parties elected to parliament and then tasks one lawmaker with forming the next government. The chosen candidate has 28 days under the law to secure the necessary majority by winning backing from various parties, and that deadline can be extended by another 14 days if needed.
If the first person tasked with forming a government fails within that period, the president selects another individual for the role, who likewise gets 28 days to assemble a government through coalition-building among the parties.
Should the second candidate also fail, the Israeli president can task a third person with forming a cabinet—this time with only 14 days to make a final attempt at putting together a government.
If that effort too proves fruitless and no agreement is reached among the parties to form a coalition, the current parliament will be dissolved and early elections held in the coming months. Such political deadlocks have recurred repeatedly in Israel's history, and there is now a real possibility that this grinding process will play out once again.
The Arab parties' support for Eisenkot has made the political terrain more treacherous for Netanyahu. A leader who has repeatedly attacked Arab lawmakers in the Knesset and even sought to explain away his electoral setbacks by blaming the Arab parties now faces the prospect of a coalition that could upend the balance of power and ultimately drive him from the political arena for good. Should his opponents succeed in forming a government, the likelihood grows that the corruption cases against Netanyahu will be reopened and his conduct during the Gaza war scrutinized, a process that could carry heavy judicial consequences for him, potentially even imprisonment.
Quake shaking Netanyahu coalition
The concern of coalition of Netanyahu is not limited to Arab parties backing Eisenkot, and a serious gap has been running in the camp of the right-wing as Netanyahu has lost his support of the religious parties, something we eroding his chance for retaining the post of PM.
Meanwhile, the United Torah Judaism party, a traditional ally of Netanyahu, told Herzog during their meeting that it will not recommend any figure for forming the next government. Yitzhak Pindrus, the party's leader, explained the decision by saying that, in his party's view, defending the rights and status of Torah seminary students takes priority over forming a government. He called on the next government to put addressing the situation of religious students at the top of its agenda.
"We came to talk about issues, not people," Pindrus stressed.
The decision has cost Netanyahu the support of the Orthodox party's seven lawmakers, though it does not mean the party is definitively ruling itself out of a possible future coalition.
The party, along with Shas, the other ultra-Orthodox Jewish party, has long fought to preserve draft exemptions for seminary students. Netanyahu has kept the exemption in place but has refused to enshrine it in legislation, because the move faces fierce opposition from many Israelis, especially at a time when reservists have been called up repeatedly for wars in Gaza and Lebanon and confrontations with Iran.
Despite United Torah Judaism's refusal to back Netanyahu, other right-wing parties continue to support the sitting prime minister for political and partisan reasons. In this context, Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit party declared its support for Netanyahu. Shas, the Religious Zionist Party and the Zehut party also said they want the mandate to form a government handed to Netanyahu. Likud and the Jewish Power party are likewise expected to recommend Netanyahu for the job.
As the opposition seeks to set find a common ground and secure the majority needed to form a cabinet, Netanyahu faces a difficult path and numerous political obstacles in his bid to hold onto power.
